Table 2

Diagnostic performance of prediction models including clinical signs and symptoms and either C reactive protein or the assay

Sensitivity (95% CI)Specificity (95% CI)PPV (95% CI)NPV (95% CI)LR+ (95% CI)LR− (95% CI)
Original Feverkidstool
Pneumonia
 Risk of ≥2.5%0.85 (0.77 to 0.94)0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)0.10 (0.06 to 0.14)0.99 (0.98 to 0.99)2.06 (1.39 to 3.07)0.25 (0.08 to 0.76)
 Risk of ≥5%0.81 (0.71 to 0.91)0.76 (0.73 to 0.79)0.15 (0.09 to 0.22)0.99 (0.98 to 0.99)3.41 (2.23 to 5.20)0.24 (0.10 to 0.62)
 Risk of ≥10%0.62 (0.47 to 0.78)0.89 (0.87 to 0.92)0.24 (0.13 to 0.34)0.98 (0.97 to 0.99)5.83 (3.90 to 8.71)0.42 (0.25 to 0.69)
 Risk of ≥15%0.48 (0.31 to 0.65)0.93 (0.91 to 0.95)0.27 (0.14 to 0.40)0.97 (0.96 to 0.98)6.80 (3.87 to 11.97)0.56 (0.37 to 0.84)
 Risk of ≥20%0.40 (0.23 to 0.58)0.95 (0.94 to 0.97)0.31 (0.16 to 0.47)0.97 (0.96 to 0.98)8.52 (4.57 to 15.90)0.63 (0.45 to 0.87)
 Risk of ≥30%0.27 (0.10 to 0.45)0.99 (0.98 to 1.00)0.60 (0.39 to 0.81)0.96 (0.95 to 0.98)28.09 (8.16 to 96.67)0.73 (0.57 to 0.94)
Other SBIs
 Risk of ≥2.5%0.98 (0.97 to 1.00)0.19 (0.15 to 0.22)0.13 (0.10 to 0.16)0.99 (0.98 to 1.00)1.21 (1.13 to 1.30)0.09 (0.01 to 0.65)
 Risk of ≥5%0.96 (0.94 to 0.99)0.41 (0.37 to 0.46)0.17 (0.13 to 0.21)0.99 (0.98 to 1.00)1.64 (1.48 to 1.83)0.08 (0.02 to 0.43)
 Risk of ≥10%0.85 (0.78 to 0.92)0.70 (0.67 to 0.74)0.26 (0.20 to 0.33)0.98 (0.96 to 0.99)2.87 (2.37 to 3.48)0.21 (0.10 to 0.42)
 Risk of ≥15%0.54 (0.42 to 0.66)0.82 (0.79 to 0.85)0.27 (0.19 to 0.36)0.94 (0.92 to 0.95)3.03 (2.24 to 4.12)0.56 (0.41 to 0.76)
 Risk of ≥20%0.38 (0.26 to 0.50)0.89 (0.86 to 0.91)0.30 (0.19 to 0.40)0.92 (0.90 to 0.94)3.37 (2.23 to 5.09)0.70 (0.57 to 0.86)
 Risk of ≥30%0.25 (0.13 to 0.36)0.94 (0.92 to 0.95)0.32 (0.18 to 0.46)0.91 (0.89 to 0.93)3.82 (2.15 to 6.77)0.81 (0.69 to 0.93)
Updated Feverkidstool
Pneumonia
 Risk of ≥2.5%0.88 (0.80 to 0.95)0.75 (0.71 to 0.78)0.16 (0.09 to 0.22)0.99 (0.99 to 1.00)3.48 (2.39 to 5.07)0.16 (0.05 to 0.49)
 Risk of ≥5%0.85 (0.76 to 0.94)0.83 (0.80 to 0.86)0.21 (0.13 to 0.29)0.99 (0.99 to 1.00)4.93 (3.55 to 6.84)0.18 (0.07 to 0.49)
 Risk of ≥10%0.76 (0.64 to 0.88)0.89 (0.86 to 0.91)0.27 (0.17 to 0.37)0.99 (0.98 to 0.99)6.84 (4.49 to 10.41)0.27 (0.14 to 0.53)
 Risk of ≥15%0.72 (0.60 to 0.85)0.92 (0.90 to 0.94)0.33 (0.21 to 0.45)0.98 (0.98 to 0.99)9.27 (5.47 to 15.72)0.30 (0.15 to 0.58)
 Risk of ≥20%0.66 (0.52 to 0.80)0.94 (0.93 to 0.96)0.39 (0.25 to 0.53)0.98 (0.97 to 0.99)11.88 (7.07 to 19.97)0.36 (0.20 to 0.63)
 Risk of ≥30%0.50 (0.34 to 0.67)0.97 (0.96 to 0.98)0.48 (0.31 to 0.65)0.97 (0.96 to 0.98)17.45 (8.88 to 34.27)0.50 (0.31 to 0.82)
Other SBIs
 Risk of ≥2.5%0.97 (0.94 to 0.99)0.62 (0.58 to 0.66)0.24 (0.19 to 0.30)0.99 (0.99 to 1.00)2.57 (2.22 to 2.99)0.05 (0.01 to 0.26)
 Risk of ≥5%0.92 (0.88 to 0.97)0.75 (0.72 to 0.79)0.32 (0.25 to 0.39)0.99 (0.98 to 1.00)3.71 (3.04 to 4.51)0.10 (0.04 to 0.26)
 Risk of ≥10%0.88 (0.82 to 0.94)0.83 (0.80 to 0.86)0.39 (0.31 to 0.47)0.98 (0.97 to 0.99)5.05 (4.04 to 6.32)0.15 (0.07 to 0.30)
 Risk of ≥15%0.84 (0.77 to 0.91)0.86 (0.84 to 0.89)0.43 (0.35 to 0.52)0.98(0.97 to 0.99)6.16 (4.78 to 7.93)0.18 (0.10 to 0.34)
 Risk of ≥20%0.80 (0.72 to 0.88)0.89 (0.86 to 0.91)0.46 (0.37 to 0.56)0.97 (0.96 to 0.98)6.95 (5.27 to 9.17)0.22 (0.14 to 0.37)
 Risk of ≥30%0.67 (0.57 to 0.77)0.91 (0.89 to 0.93)0.49 (0.39 to 0.59)0.96 (0.94 to 0.97)7.70 (5.49 to 10.82)0.36 (0.25 to 0.52)
  • LR+, positive likelihood ratio; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SBI, serious bacterial infection.