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Accurate Autism Screening at the 18-Month Well-Child Visit Requires Different Strategies than at 24 Months

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Abstract

Accuracy of autism screening using M-CHAT plus the follow-up interview (M-CHAT/F) for children screened positive at 18-months was compared to screening at 24-months. Formal ASD testing was criterion for a community sample of M-CHAT positive children (n = 98), positive predictive value (PPV) was 0.40 for the M-CHAT and 0.58 for the M-CHAT/F. MCHAT/F PPV was 0.69 among children 20+ months compared to 0.36 for <20 months. Multivariate analyses incorporating data from the Ages and Stages Questionnaire, MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory, M-CHAT and M-CHAT/F results, and M-CHAT items suggest language variables carry greatest relative importance in contributing to an age-based algorithm with potential to improve PPV for toddlers <20 months to the same level as observed in older toddlers.

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Acknowledgments

This project was funded by a grant from the NIMH Grant No. R44MH085399. The participating primary care pediatricians and their office staffs in the state of Maryland are acknowledged for their cooperation during the project and continuing implementation of the screenings described after the conclusion of the project.

Author Contributions

RS and BH conceived of the study, participated in its design and coordination and drafted the manuscript; RL participated in the design and interpretation of the data; TM participated in the design and coordination of the study. KW and DM participated in the coordination of the study and assisted with the measurement; PB participated in the design of the study and performed the statistical analysis; All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Author notes

  1. Danielle Marks

    Present address: Maternal and Child Health Unit, Public Health Division, Wyoming Department of Health, Evanston, WY, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21287, USA

    Raymond Sturner, Barbara Howard, Rebecca Landa & Danielle Marks

  2. Center for Promotion of Child Development through Primary Care, Baltimore, MD, 21210, USA

    Raymond Sturner

  3. Total Child Health, Baltimore, MD, 21210, USA

    Barbara Howard, Tanya Morrel & Kejuana Walton

  4. Foresight Logic, Inc., Saint Paul, MN, USA

    Paul Bergmann

  5. PrairieCare Institute, Minneapolis, MN, USA

    Paul Bergmann

  6. Kennedy Krieger Institute, Baltimore, MD, 21287, USA

    Rebecca Landa

  7. Baltimore Healthy Start, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA

    Kejuana Walton

  8. Sinai Hospital, Baltimore, MD, 21215, USA

    Danielle Marks

  9. 6017 Altamont Place, Baltimore, MD, 21210, USA

    Raymond Sturner

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  1. Raymond Sturner
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Correspondence to Raymond Sturner.

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Disclosure

This study was conducted by the Center for Promotion of Child Development through Primary Care and its for-profit subsidiary, Total Child Health (TCH), Inc. CHADIS, the web-tool used in the study, was developed by Dr. Sturner and his spouse, Dr. Howard. Dr. Sturner is Director of the Center and Dr. Howard is President of TCH. Both are members of the Board of Directors of both entities and are paid consultants to both entities. The terms of the arrangement were managed by The Johns Hopkins University in accordance with its conflict of interest policies.

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All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.

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Sturner, R., Howard, B., Bergmann, P. et al. Accurate Autism Screening at the 18-Month Well-Child Visit Requires Different Strategies than at 24 Months. J Autism Dev Disord 47, 3296–3310 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-017-3231-0

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